Risk analysis on the reach of the project result

Risk analysis is a threat assessment for the successful implementation of a project.

Each project contains a certain risk. 

 

Sources of risk arise from project personnel (erroneous decisions on the part of project management, errors in the implementation of tasks) or future "victims" (fear of the consequences of the project) or bilateral (controllers for occupational safety and information data or environmental protection). 

 

The threat to the successful implementation of the project may be other reasons, such as the limit of technical capabilities, the inaccessibility of the necessary resources or just technical errors in the planning method. Therefore, it is necessary to determine at each planned stage of the project what risk may arise and what measures could reduce it.

The problem with risk analysis is that not all possible types of risk can be predicted in advance, and the risk value can change at different stages of project development. Insurance against the detection of any risk would cause high costs for the customer of the project and could be the reason for the refusal of the project.

Two methods of risk analysis are proposed:

• Formal risk analysis;
• Rating risk analysis.

The method of formal risk analysis 15 shows the prediction of risk by filling out the form table according to certain criteria. This method is proposed when it is possible to clearly define actions that are risky.



The method of rating risk analysis 16 proceeds from the fact that the value of risk at the planned stages cannot be clearly determined. Practice shows that the threats of risk factors differ from each other in their value. 

 

After determining the general risk factors for the project, it is proposed to determine the sequence of risks by their importance or importance in the implementation of the project. The sequence of risks is determined by the methods of determining their rating. To determine the rating, you can use three indicators:

• The value (impact) of the risk that is detected;
• The probability that the risk will be detected;
• Efficiency of protesting measures.

The rating method for determining risk on the example of studying a new variety of soap ("liquid soap") shows. Under the five-point system, "1" has the best value, and "5" is the worst value of the 5 risk factors mentioned in our example. The obtained estimates from "1" to "5" are multiplied and according to the results of the amount of points, it is possible to determine the place of risk as important as it is for the project.



In our example, the greatest possible risk is that the components do not combine to create a new variety of soap. In the second place, the risk that the production of new soap is harmful to the surrounding environment.